Apr 19, 2022Leave a message

How Will The Epidemic Affect Economic Growth This Year? The Authoritative Interpretation Of The National Bureau Of Statistics Is Here!

"Since March, the world situation has been complex and evolving, the impact of the domestic epidemic has continued, and some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations. The growth rate of some major indicators has slowed down, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. However, the fundamentals of my country's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the economy continues to The recovery situation has not changed, the characteristics of great development potential, sufficient resilience, and wide space have not changed, and we are fully capable and qualified to overcome difficulties and challenges, and achieve sustainable and healthy economic development." On April 18, the first quarter held at the State Council Information Office At the press conference on the operation of the national economy, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said.



At the press conference, a reporter asked: The social and economic life of Shanghai and other provinces and cities has been impacted by the epidemic. How does the National Bureau of Statistics view the impact of this round of epidemics? Will it affect the achievement of this year's economic growth target?



In this regard, Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, the international situation has been turbulent, the global epidemic has spread, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, external instability and uncertainty have increased, domestic epidemics have spread frequently, some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations, and the economy has been under downward pressure. increased. Despite these unfavorable factors, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, all regions and departments have adhered to the principle of maintaining stability and seeking progress while scientifically coordinating epidemic prevention and control and social development, and intensified efforts to stabilize growth. The overall economic operation is within a reasonable range. .



From the perspective of the trend in the next stage, although there is certain pressure in the short-term economic operation, there are still many favorable conditions for my country's economy to maintain stable growth throughout the year.



First, the recovery trend of consumption is expected to continue. Although the growth of consumption has been suppressed to a certain extent due to the recent epidemic, the recovery trend of consumption will not change, and the role of consumption as a "ballast stone" will still appear. In the first quarter, the growth of final consumption expenditure contributed 69.4% to economic growth, still the largest contribution among the three major demands. As the impact of the epidemic is gradually brought under control, the employment priority policy will continue to exert its force, which will promote the improvement of residents' consumption ability and willingness to consume. At the same time, actively promoting the expansion of bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances, promoting the deep integration of online and offline consumption, developing new forms of consumption and new models, and accelerating the quality and expansion of the rural consumer market will also be conducive to the continued growth of consumption.



Second, the stimulating effect of investment is expected to increase. Since the beginning of this year, all localities have actively promoted the construction of major projects, driving the rapid growth of investment. In the first quarter, investment in manufacturing increased by 15.6% year-on-year, and investment in infrastructure increased by 8.5%. As my country's support for the development of the real economy continues to increase, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the growing momentum of innovation and development in emerging industries will help drive the growth of industrial investment. At the same time, around the country's major strategic deployment and the "14th Five-Year Plan", it is also conducive to investment expansion to carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule.



Third, the pace of industrial upgrading and development has accelerated. In recent years, my country has deeply implemented the innovation-driven development strategy, strengthened strategic scientific and technological strength, enhanced scientific and technological innovation capabilities, increased corporate innovation incentives, increased the ratio of deductions for R&D expenses, and promoted industrial upgrading and development, and the effects have continued to emerge. In the first quarter, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 14.2% year-on-year, and the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.1%. The industrial technology intensity has steadily increased.



Fourth, the green and intelligent transformation is driven by enhancement. With the steady progress of my country's green development, the accelerated pace of energy green and low-carbon transformation, the expansion of demand for new energy products, and the increased requirements for energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation in traditional industries, it will drive the growth of related industries. In the first quarter, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells in my country increased by 140.8% and 24.3% respectively year-on-year. The rapid development of 5G network, information technology, and artificial intelligence technology has also spawned new industrial growth points. In the first quarter, the smart consumer device manufacturing industry grew by more than 10% year-on-year.



Fifth, the dividends of opening to the outside world continued to show. Although the international environment is complex and severe, overall, the world economy is still recovering, and the demand for my country's export products will still increase. Under the conditions of the epidemic, my country's export enterprises have a relatively strong ability to adapt to changes in external demand. At the same time, the policy of stabilizing foreign trade has continued to exert force, the results of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" have continued to show, and the rapid development of new foreign trade formats is conducive to the growth of imports and exports. In the first quarter, my country's imports and exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, which was achieved on the basis of the high base of the previous year and fully reflects the resilience of foreign trade development.



Sixth, the macroeconomic policies have continued to be effective. Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complicated situation, all regions and departments have thoroughly implemented the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of the government work report, insisted on taking stability as the top priority and seeking progress while maintaining stability, actively introduced policies that are conducive to economic stability, and increased support for the real economy. support. Increase market supply and price stability, especially in view of the recent increase in the downward pressure on the economy, we will further increase the implementation of macro policies, arrange ahead and speed up the pace, actively assist market players, ensure food and energy security, and maintain industrial chain supply The chain is stable and the bottom line of people's livelihood is firmly secured. With the gradual effect of the policy, it will promote the smooth operation of the economy.



"Overall, my country's industrial system is complete, the super-large market space is wide, the reform and opening up has many dividends, and the economic governance capacity is strong, which can effectively deal with various risks and challenges. From the perspective of the whole year, my country's economy is expected to maintain a recovery and development trend. Of course, right We must attach great importance to the problems we are currently facing, and in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, continue to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase the implementation of macro policies, make every effort to stabilize the macroeconomic market, and strive to achieve the expected goals and tasks for the year." Fu. Ling Hui said.


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