In the first quarter of 2022, the development of the Metaverse will experience "ice and fire". On the one hand, the Metaverse's performance in the capital market is dismal: Meta, which is fully transforming the Metaverse track, has fallen by more than 40% in market value compared to its historical high in September 2021; Robles (the first stock in the US stock market) Roblox) has fallen by nearly 56% in market value this year; Zhongqingbao, a metaverse concept stock in the A-share market, has lost more than 28% in market value this year. On the other hand, the Metaverse has received unabated attention from giant companies and governments: Google, Adobe, Inspur and other domestic and foreign giants are still optimistic about the Metaverse and launch Metaverse software and hardware products; at the National Two Sessions in 2022, Metaverse It caused heated discussions among the representatives; the government work reports of Shanghai, Wuhan, Hefei, Chengdu and other places mentioned Metaverse. Metaverse concepts such as "industrial metaverse", "consumer metaverse" and "social metaverse" emerge one after another. As an emerging technology, the Metaverse needs to be integrated and empowered with application scenarios in stages. Practitioners should also respect the laws of the industry, refrain from false concepts, and be tolerant and prudent in innovation.
Concept of consumption, increasing uncertainty factor of metaverse development
The Metaverse will enter the public eye in the first half of 2021. The Metaverse, which aggregates various information technologies, presents rich application scenarios, and breeds a broad market space, has attracted great attention from enterprises, capital, scientific research institutions, and the media. In the past year, positive signals such as the investment of billions of dollars by domestic and foreign giants, the promotion of leaders of technology companies, and the positive attitudes of governments of various countries have confirmed the broad development prospects of Metaverse. But at the same time, phenomena such as applying concepts, abusing scenarios, and capital hype cast an uncertain shadow over the development of the Metaverse.
Phenomenon 1: The layout of the metaverse becomes more diversified. The concept of the metaverse is clearly defined, covering the physical real world and digital virtual world, as well as the virtual and real world that mirror each other, and the characteristics of high immersion, social specificity, experienceable economic attributes and independent creation have become consensus. The above concepts And the characteristics also make the Metaverse different from other emerging technologies such as virtual reality, blockchain, artificial intelligence, etc., presenting in the form of a collection of several types of technologies. At the same time, the "Industrial Metaverse", "Consumer Metaverse" and "Social Metaverse" have enabled the Metaverse to expand into popular application fields, and to a certain extent have promoted the diversification of the Metaverse layout. However, there are also some companies that completely deviate from the Metaverse concept and characteristics , the phenomenon of "rubbing hot spots" to promote their own technologies and products.
Phenomenon 2: Metaverse application scenarios are sci-fi. The Metaverse originated from foreign science fiction. In recent years, science fiction films such as "Ready Player One" have also involved the Metaverse, depicting it as a brand new world that is difficult to distinguish between true and false, and each life and production scene is full of science fiction. However, the application scenarios of the Metaverse are quite different from those of science fiction works. The application scenarios of the Metaverse advocated by some media and enterprises not only do not conform to the actual development of this application field, but also deviate from the laws of modern basic physics, electronics and biology, and even apply the industrial Internet, VR+ In existing scenarios such as social networking and blockchain traceability, the core technology name is replaced by a certain field of metaverse, and excessive marketing has caused suspicion and confusion about the metaverse in various industries.
Phenomenon 3: Metaverse capital elements bubble. The concept of Metaverse covers a variety of new-generation information technologies, and shows the new needs of the above technologies, thereby opening up a new market space. Therefore, most of the capital has a positive attitude towards the Metaverse and injects capital into the market in advance. However, there are metaverse investment targets that heat up the concept and create inflated valuations, and there are those who can realize it at a higher point; there are virtual currency traders that are explicitly prohibited by the state, such as "coin speculation" and "mining" by applying the metaverse concept. ; Even under the banner of the Metaverse, there are blatant crimes such as fraud and illegal fundraising. The above-mentioned people with ulterior motives have made big, evil, and indiscriminate articles on the Metaverse in the capital field, which makes the risk of bubbles follow, affecting investor confidence and reducing the effective support of capital elements for the Metaverse.
Echelon development, metaverse landing or will experience "three steps"
The metaverse points to a new production and living space for human beings, and its influence will extend to a certain extent from the field of technology and industry to the field of social governance. It is expected to subvert the current economic rules, reshape the concept of government governance, and enrich existing cultural forms. Although from the perspective of the maturity of related technologies, it will take decades or even longer for the Metaverse to actually land. However, the current focus on the pain points and needs of the industry, and effective application according to the development stage of the Metaverse and its related technologies, can be divided into three The value of realizing industry empowerment in stages is huge.
Stage 1: Deconstructing industry needs and consolidating the underlying foundation. As an emerging technology, the development of the Metaverse is inseparable from the traction and drive of the needs of various industries. The pain points of various industries are expected to be alleviated or solved with the help of the Metaverse, and it will also promote the progress of the underlying basic technologies of the Metaverse. This virtuous cycle will be the development logic of the metaverse for at least the next 10 years. For example, the development of pan-entertainment industries such as games and videos is limited by terminals such as mobile phones and computers, and it is difficult to give users a more realistic experience. Therefore, the virtual reality technology at the bottom of Metaverse can meet the core demands of the industry, give full play to its immersive advantages, and continuously optimize the user experience. , to open up the market, and the user groups in the market will also put forward requirements for high-concurrency computing, large-bandwidth transmission and 4K/8K display of virtual reality, which will drive the progress of the underlying technology of virtual reality, thereby helping the Metaverse to land.
Stage 2: Reshape application scenarios and expand emerging models. After the first stage of development, the metaverse is more closely integrated with application scenarios, and the underlying technologies such as virtual reality, computing, and networking are relatively mature, so the reshaping of specific industry scenarios will be realized on the basis of meeting the needs of various industries. For example, in the field of industrial manufacturing, the traditional model is "design, proofing, mass production, and delivery", and value is obtained after delivery. The application of Metaverse will reshape the above process and expand the value output model: through real-time data transmission, high-precision product modeling and comprehensive factory simulation, and coordinating technologies such as digital twins and industrial Internet, a certain link of the traditional model can output value. , to solve the problems of high cost of proofing, difficulty in mass production of non-standardized products, and deviations between delivered products and design concepts.
Stage 3: Subvert the theoretical framework and change the production and lifestyle. After the first two stages of development, the Metaverse has been deeply integrated with various industries, and has produced many new industries, new markets and new spaces. The characteristics of the Metaverse, such as the integration of virtual and real, and decentralization, will subtly affect people's production and life. If a metaverse service is provided for one or several cities, the computing power demand and network load will be unimaginable, so theoretical frameworks such as Moore's Law, von Neumann computer structure and the Internet OSI model will be iterated or subverted to meet the needs of the metaverse application scenario requirements. At the same time, the coexistence of real characters and virtual characters in the metaverse forms a more complex and constantly changing relationship, which will also have a huge impact on social governance and moral concepts, thereby changing people's production and lifestyle.
Rational and prudent, three suggestions for the development of the metaverse
Suggestion 1: Respect the laws of the industry. After a long period of development in manufacturing, finance, education and other industries, their internal logic has become relatively clear. The significance of technological innovation is to promote social development. Therefore, packaging the metaverse as a tool to replace a certain industry is neither in line with the reality of the metaverse nor in line with the law of industry development. Promoting the development of Metaverse is inseparable from the in-depth excavation and accurate understanding of the inherent laws of the development of various industries, and only by empowering the industry can it achieve development.
Suggestion 2: Don't use the "metaverse" trend to falsely mention concepts. Whether it is enterprises, governments or capital, they should view the development and role of the metaverse rationally. The foundation of the metaverse is immersive experience, which is in line with the general development trend of the deep integration of information technology and society. In the past 70 years, the degree of "intimacy" between human beings and technology has become higher and higher. Information technology terminals have experienced from mainframes to minicomputers, to PCs, to mobile terminals and virtual reality. Immersive experience is constantly satisfying people. The inevitable stage of the need for technological sensibility. Therefore, the Metaverse is a continuation of previous technological innovations, and it is too early to be subverted.
Recommendation 3: Inclusive and prudent innovation. To develop the Metaverse, we should calmly explore the technologies behind the concepts, such as virtual reality, blockchain, etc., and at the same time delineate the development route of the Metaverse technology and predict the development prospects of the technology. It not only fully accommodates the twists and turns of technological innovation, but also explicitly opposes the hype of the metaverse concept by technological innovation. At the same time, innovatively excavate application scenarios, and use the characteristics of Metaverse immersion, strong interaction, and decentralization to meet the core demands of the scenarios, thereby driving the implementation of the Metaverse.
