The global semiconductor supply chain tension and price hikes that began in the second half of 2020 are still continuing: they have even formed resonance with the price hikes of mineral resources, bulk materials and end products. In particular, the decline in the operating rate of vehicle plants caused by the shortage of automotive semiconductors has risen to an unprecedented level of safety in the "industry chain". In this context, after entering 2021, the LED industry, especially the LED display sector, is also "worrying about prices". PJ learned from industry channels and manufacturers that although LED midstream packages and downstream terminals are still trying to maintain the price system around the third quarter of 2020, and technological and technological progress can help reduce the cost of some products, the upstream price fluctuates The haze has also enveloped the industry. The LED upstream industry chain has entered a price increase cycle.
According to media reports, the domestic LED upstream head company HC Semitek adjusted the price of lighting white light chips in November 2020, with an increase of about 6%-8%. After the price increase, the price It is about 80 yuan/piece (2-inch piece).
From the perspective of the entire market, the price has increased by 10%-15% compared with the beginning of last year. In the same period, the accident at the Tongxin Optoelectronics factory in December prompted a 5-10% price increase in key upstream materials such as sapphire and PSS, which may further aggravate the price increase and shortage of chips. Industry research believes that since mid-2020, the price of sapphire substrate, a key upstream material in the LED industry, has risen by about 40%-this round of price increases is second only to the 80% increase in sapphire substrates faced by the industry in early 2014.
In addition, the industry believes that under the stimulus of the new crown vaccine in 2021, overseas market demand will accelerate, the mini-led LCD backlight will bring new capacity demand, and the expansion of the small-pitch LED market below P1.0, the LED industry is entering demand Recovery phase.
Therefore, the price increase is expected and expected! "Industry insiders believe that under the rising price cycle of other electronic products and resource products around the world, as well as the pressure of the US dollar and the euro QE, the LED industry cannot maintain the low price of mid-2020 under the pressure of "shrinking overseas demand" for a long time. Of course, On the other hand, LED products are at a historically low price after all, and short-term price increases will help industry companies to restore their "profitability", but will not affect the changing trend of industry product demand. That is, the price will be longer, but " "Not to become expensive" is the industry consensus in the short-term. For enterprises in the industry, the significance of this change is even less than the significance of the upgrading of the "industrial structure"-the latter is also the reason for the changes in the industry product price system One.
The climax of the LED industry upgrading may have arrived in 2020. The most significant change in the LED industry’s production capacity is the decline in supply stability in overseas markets affected by the epidemic. Upstream and midstream companies have strengthened the supply of high-profit products, that is, low The production capacity of the "three low" products with price, low profit and low-end demand has been cut. Therefore, this shows that the price of products with absolute low prices is given priority to increase!" In fact, the profit level of low-end products doubled in price , I'm afraid it is not as good as the level of mini-led products after the price is cut by half. This makes the "industry supply balance tilted towards high-end products" at a time when the industry's capacity demand is tight.
For example, under the new crown epidemic, ultraviolet disinfection LED light source products are very popular, and even sold out for a while. In the domestic market, the new crown epidemic has led to a significant increase in the demand for social digital management, and the growth of medium and long-term orders and intended orders has remained high. Even at the beginning of 2021, the “rural epidemic prevention and digitalization shortcomings” demonstrated in the industry have made the industry generally believe that in the next three years, “rural smart digitalization” will fill up the shortcomings of market demand, and county and village three-level social management and digital construction will become a new growth point. .
Of course, the most promising incremental point in 2021 is mini-led. Not only mini-led independent display devices, but also LCD backlight mini-leds will grow "rapidly": industry analysts believe that the market size of Apple's mini-led backlight products by 2023 will be 10-20 times that of 2020 . This trend will also be the trend of the entire high-end display industry. Before 2020, it is to solve the problem of whether mini-led is available or not; starting in 2021, the industry has set out to solve the problem of "how much can be sold".
While the high-end demand is breaking through, the low-end demand of the LED industry is declining. "For example, early monochrome LED screens, small-area cheap signage screens above P5, etc., were subject to "upgraded advertising content", "competition with large-size and high-definition devices such as LCDs," and "low-end LED screen price increases, high-end LED screens. The impact of trends such as price cuts, “offline low-end stores are increasing survival crisis under the epidemic and e-commerce pressure” is entering the era of market shrinking.
The performance center moves upward, the scale of high-end products increases, and the cost decreases!" The law applies to various subdivisions such as lighting, special light sources, LCD backlights, and LED displays of terminal products in the LED industry chain. This has actually led to the structural upgrade of the entire terminal market, which will inevitably significantly affect the supply structure of the upstream industry chain: for example, mini-led technology obviously consumes a large amount of packaging and wafer-side production capacity. Under the 2020 epidemic, the construction and release of upstream production capacity has been more or less affected, further exacerbating the "supply tension" characterized by the upgrading of the consumption structure in 2021.
The bright moment of the LED industry in 2021 will inevitably come The price increase is an inevitable event in the recent period. People in the LED industry pointed out that even if LED crystals and packaging, and even terminal manufacturers want to maintain prices, they need to consider the issue of "rebalancing demand"; even the price increase of PCB board and copper, the price increase of terminal driver IC, and the ethylene oxide Wait for the impact of the price increase of key chemical materials. In one sentence, "Everyone else is going up, and I can't help but increase: Even if it is regarded as inflation, the price will go up. "It is basically the industry consensus that the LED industry enters a new cycle stage in 2021. If there is no unexpected black swan, the LED industry chain will end in 2018 and continue to reach a three-year "decline-oriented" cycle.
Especially the confidence on the demand side is very conducive to the strengthening of the LED price cycle. 2016-2020 is a period of accelerated growth of OLED panels. It replaces more mobile phone LCD panels, which naturally leads to a sharp drop in the sales of mobile phone LED backlights. This is a typical shrinking structural demand. In 2021, LCD TVs will usher in the first year of mini-led, and more "backlight LED demand" will be generated soon.
At the same time, there is a clear trend of large LCD TV display area. In 2020, 65-inch and its large-size LCD will account for 25% of domestic color TV sales-the scale of demand for LED backlights is directly proportional to the area growth of LCD displays. According to AVC Revo's forecast, global shipments of Mini LED TVs are expected to reach 4 million units in 2021, and Mini LED TVs will usher in a period of rapid growth in the next five years. Samsung alone expects to ship 2 million Mini LED TVs in 2021. TrendForce predicts that the global Mini LED backlight TV sales will exceed 35.5 million units by 2025. In 2020, the market size of mini-led TVs will be no more than hundreds of thousands. ……At the same time, the mini-led direct display market, the market demand for small-pitch LED large screens below P1.0 pitch, has also passed the infancy period and entered the application landing stage. It is expected to accelerate growth in 2021 and beyond, and further expand The demand exposure of the LED industry...These things are purely incremental. Moreover, the international market believes that with the start of a new round of global "climate issues" intergovernmental policy cycle. That is, the United States has rejoined the Paris climate agreement and "the three East Asian countries took the lead in proposing peak carbon emissions targets", and a new round of demand upgrades in the lighting market will also begin. As an excellent green semiconductor light source, LED has a certain market foundation for the global demand market to grow stronger and to get out of the period of weak price. "The new cycle has come!" This is the basic consensus of the LED industry in early 2021. Regardless of the upstream or the terminal, whether the display screen or the backlight source, or the lighting, all will face a new round of opportunities for industrial upgrading, technological breakthroughs and demand growth.
